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this ruling class was inhabited in the areas, like Balkh,fargana,alai,Tajikistan,badakhshan,Kabul,Takhar,Tashkorogan,Khutan,kashkar,Swat,Kashmir,Peshawar, hashtnager,Dir, Bajour,Gilgit,for serveral thaousand years.
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this ruling class was inhabited in the areas, like Balkh,fargana,alai,Tajikistan,badakhshan,Kabul,Takhar,Tashkorogan,Khutan,kashkar,Swat,Kashmir,Peshawar, hashtnager,Dir, Bajour,Gilgit,for serveral thaousand years.
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Tunisian revolution in Tajkistan? Rate Topic: -----

#1 User is offline   AbuMuslim Icon

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Posted 26 January 2011 - 04:33 PM

We need a jasmine/Tunisian revolution In Tajkistan to install a parliamentary democracy with 2 term limit on presidency. Sound economic reforms needed to bloster economy and lift the people out of the poverty. The remittance depedented economy needs diversification. More investment and there is no way to attract foreign direct investment in this situation where Rahan controls everything. Democracy, free election. More powerful Army, investements and cordial relations with all regional and international powers are in the best interest of Tajik nation.

tajkistan ba yak inqelab zaroorat daraad ta hokomat e demoracy parliamany jagozeen in dolat shawad. Mardom ba saranavesh khod hakem shawand. Sarmaya gozari da bakhsh hai iqtesadi sorat geerad wa tamame sanaehh wa sherkat ha maal e mardom bashad ya ham az hokomat na enke az president rahman.

Bass ast degar president rahman ezafa az 20 saal hokomat kard. berawad poshte kaar e khod
I am the servant of the Qur'an as long as I have life.
I am the dust on the path of Muhammad, the Chosen One.
If anyone quotes anything except this from my sayings,
I am quit of him and outraged by these words.
Movlana Jalaluddin Balkhi
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#2 User is offline   Sohrab Icon

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Posted 26 January 2011 - 07:59 PM

I think Tajiks do really need to do something about the situation. Rahman has been in power for too long without doing(maybe i am wrong) anything significant for tajikistan. Tajikistan is week and being bullied by the powerfull neighbour, economy is in ruin, no freedom, poverty etc. But if a tunisian type revolution is good for tajikistan or not is something i am not sure. Tunisia i think is not as poor as tajikistan, the number of middle class in Tunsia is alot higher than in tajikistan, tunisia unlike tajikistan have a regular army/police which is not loyal to any specific party or politician, we saw that both of these forces sided with the protesters and tried hard to keep everything togheter. But in case of tajiksitan i am not quite sure, there is a threat of religious militancy in the country, if there is any type of trumoil, they can easily fill the void or cause anarchy, the police/army might be loyal to rahman rather than their own country. Yes, i definately think that there should be a movement in tajikistan, but what kind i am not sure.
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#3 User is offline   Gul agha Icon

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Posted 26 January 2011 - 09:21 PM

If Rahman is removed, Tajikistan will become weaker because the extremists will take over Dushanbe and this will cause Tajikistan's partition. The Pamiri-Tajiks who are Ismaili will secede from Tajikistan and will create their own independent Badakhshan or Pamir.
Ba Naam e Khudahvand e Jan o Kherad, Kazeen Bartar Andisha Bar Nagzarad

به نام خداوند جان و خرد، کزین برتر اندیشه برنگذرد
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#4 User is offline   Arash Tehrani Icon

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Posted 27 January 2011 - 01:01 AM

Look what happened to us when we ousted the Shah. The religious fanatics filled the void and hijacked the revolution. And now we can't get rid of them. NOW, we are thinking about reform, but it's too late. It's wishful thinking to think that these people will allow reform. We should have advocated reform during the Shah. He would have accepted reform eventually, I'm sure of it. And that's why I think you should learn from our mistake and not do a revolution. Revolutions are unstable and unpredictable. They have the potential for disaster. It's like tossing dice, the outcome is totally up to chance. Therefore, I think it is wiser for you presently to co-operate with the current government as much as possible and rather advocate reform. Outward strength and national unity must be upheld. When we ousted the Shah, Saddam Hussein seized the opportunity to invade us. In addition to that, you also have separatists to keep in check.

Furthermore, the chance of being able to bargain back and forth, reason and do deals and compromises with normal dictators like the Shah or Rahman is much easier than trying to negotiate with religious fanatics who see themselves as God's representatives. At the end of the day, whatever dictators may be, they are humans, and they know it, and they will first and foremost look after their own interest and will therefore be willing to do compromises in order to stay in power. You can count on their greed. A religious zealot, on the other hand, can not be bargained with. They will never compromise because they legitimize their decisions through the law and word of God, and so you can't ever convince them to cut deals. Their cause is higher than themselves. How can you reason with someone so blinded? It is impossible. Therefore, Tajiks, it might look bad, but be happy that you at least don't have Talibs and Hizbollahis running your country. I encourage you to keep your head cool and to always be focused on working in favor of reform rather than revolution.
Mohareb

"If anything, this video proves that Iran is democratic."
- Qizilbash, the king of IQ

"Democracy has just become a slogan these days but i never fell for it."
- The golden quote from Qizilbash, the King of Kings of thinkers

"Ahmadinejad is not a know-it-all."
- Qizilbash states the obvious
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#5 User is offline   Parsistani Icon

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Posted 28 January 2011 - 08:06 PM

Tajikistan is only weak because their is no sign of using of it´s natural sources, except water. They still didn´t asked Russia or China, as their close allies, to support them in this way. However, giving CHina 1% of it´s country could have been a sign for a chance and a political change. And ''fanatic'' Muslims or Muslim ''Internationalists'' are against this deal. However, the new generation seems to be much tougher, smarter and more mobile than their parents. These kind are the future for Tajikistan and I welcome them every time. Beside that, why a filthy Paki have the right to come in Afghanistan and dictate on us what he wants as a non-Afghan citizen´just because he is a dalkhor Pathanese? Because he is a Pashtun. However, Tajiks like me, Gul Agha or any ordinery Iranian can go to Tajikistan and work as politician. It was so in the past and it would be possible today and tomorrow.
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#6 User is offline   Arash Tehrani Icon

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Posted 02 February 2011 - 01:25 PM

After seeing the events in Egypt and especially Tunisia, I don't think there is necessarily always a danger of extremism emerging after a revolution. Tunisia's population evidently had a pretty secular mindset on their own, so even after they ousted ben-Ali, religious groups didn't grab the power, and it doesn't appear like the people want that either. The Egyptian people also seem to want to continue with secularism after Mubarak, and even if the Muslim Brotherhood are vocal in their presence in, and support of, the protests, the people have not rallied around them like Iranians rallied around Khomeini in '79.

It all has to do with the people of the country in question. Both Tunisia and Egypt have a significant segment of educated middle class in their populations who are modern, and are therefore not vulnerable to populist promises of religious parties. Iran in '79 had major class differences. Most were poor and a small segment of the population were wealthy. This made people susceptible to both marxist and religious populistic parties and figures. The same might be the case in Yemen if they succeed in a revolt. But the Iran of today is no longer like that. Now most of the population is young and modern, educated and the middle class has grown significantly. If Iranians managed to oust the IRI now, they would no longer be vulnerable to religious or communistic propaganda, and the first thing everyone would agree on would be that the new constitution would have to be based on secularism. The trick is just to avoid looting and anarchy during the transition of power, which I think is next to impossible.

So I think those are among the key deciding factors. Do religious fundamentalist ideologies have large support among the people currently? Is there great poverty? Are there large class differences? Would people fall for the promises of communist or religious extremist populist candidates? If yes, then under such conditions a revolution will only bring to power radical zealots who will only move the country backwards in terms of development and modernity, and it would be better to be patient, and advocate reform to raise the standard of living first and create a large middle class. If no, then the risk of disaster is vastly less, and a revolution could potentially be a swift turn for the better.

Although, external factors are important to consider too. Currently, Iran's former enemy, Iraq (Saddam), is eliminated and Iran has no external enemy to fear during a transition of power if they were to succeed, although internal separatists exist. If Tajikistan has external or internal enemies, it would also be wise to consider whether it's likely that they would exploit a time of authority vacuum.
Mohareb

"If anything, this video proves that Iran is democratic."
- Qizilbash, the king of IQ

"Democracy has just become a slogan these days but i never fell for it."
- The golden quote from Qizilbash, the King of Kings of thinkers

"Ahmadinejad is not a know-it-all."
- Qizilbash states the obvious
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