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'Afghanistani Obama' aspires to be his country's saviour E-mail


By Ben Farmer in Samangan province, and Nick Meo in Kabul
As Afghanistan's elections loom, President Hamid Karzai's strongest challenge comes from a candidate who crosses the country's ethnic divide
Its ancient engine emitting an unsettling rattle, the Russian-made MI-17 helicopter touched down in a choking cloud of dust in the mud brick Afghan town of Samangan. The haze had barely cleared around the disembarking figure of its VIP passenger, though, as the waiting crowd surged forward shouting his name – "Abdullah!".
A month ago, none of the 40 candidates running for president against Hamid Karzai seemed to have a chance, and the farmers of Samangan would not have bothered leaving their wheat fields for an election rally.

But suddenly, a lacklustre election campaign has sparked into a ferocious battle.
The hopes of millions who prayed for a better life after the fall of the Taliban government, and were frustrated, have been pinned on the challenger who promises to unseat Mr Karzai – the urbane former foreign minister, Dr Abdullah Abdullah.
With just 11 days to go before a vote that will help decide Afghanistan's future, many believe he has enough momentum to win – thanks not just to his own popularity, but to widespread disillusionment with the incumbent.
"Hamid Karzai has broken his promises," snarled farmer Mohammad Yousef, 56, one of 2,000 men who sat beneath the shade of parachutes strung between trees to hear Dr Abdullah speak in Samangan on Wednesday. "He hasn't done anything for us, so we will not support him this time."
Instead, Mr Yousef's vote will instead go to Dr Abdullah, a former eye surgeon who went into politics after serving with the anti-Taliban guerrillas of Afghanistan's Northern Alliance in the 1990s. In a contest dominated by ex-warlords, Islamic extremists, and potentates of opium drug trade, he is regarded as of the few decent men of Afghan politics – free from the whiff of corruption, and with no blood on his hands.
"It was very difficult to convince me to get into the race," said Dr Abdullah in an interview with the Sunday Telegraph, in which he admitted an initial apprehension about challenging for the toughest job in Afghan politics.
"I wanted to contribute to the change, but not lead it. But when I decided, from that time the picture was very clear for me. People do want change and you have to prove you are the agent for it."
On August 20, amid a full-scale war in the south, and bombs, killings and bloodshed across the shattered nation, Afghans will go to the polls at 7,000 voting stations nationwide, taking part in only the second fully democratic election in the nation's turbulent history.
Mr Karzai is still the favourite, according to the estimates of analysts and diplomats in Kabul. But in the past month of campaigning, the sense of inevitability around a Karzai victory has been slipping away, leaving the president with a fight on his hands. If there is no outright winner, there will be a run-off a month later, which would most likely be a straight battle between Mr Karzai and Dr Abdullah.
The contest is President Karzai's to lose. His Achilles' heel has been the impression of incompetence and corruption that has dogged his eight years in power, and slowly dragged him from the position of darling of the West, to one of the West's biggest Afghan headaches. Ever since Britain sent troops to Helmand, diplomats have viewed him as failing to provide the leadership which is desperately needed to boost Afghans' confidence in government and loosen the hold of the Taliban. He has squabbled often and bitterly with British diplomats over policy in Helmand – yet as a wily political operator, has always managed to sidestep apparent Western efforts to undermine him in the last 18 months.
Ordinary Afghans have grumbled about him for far longer. In the north they complain about the lack of water, power, and jobs, and in the south they complain about violence. But while they blame President Karzai, they have generally stuck with him because there was no one else. Until now.
"I voted for Karzai in the first elections and I was a penniless taxi driver. Nothing has changed five years later," Abdul Shukor said with a wry grin at a recent Abdullah rally in Kabul. The bitter joke among the capital's poorer residents is that those who have done well out of Mr Karzai live in the so-called "poppy palaces" which have sprung up across the capital. Gaudy, tasteless mansions, their nickname comes from the assumption that their owners have made money out of the burgeoning opium trade.
It is this disillusionment that Dr Abdullah believes can enable him to oust Mr Karzai and his formidable coalition of former warlords, strongmen and ethnic leaders. They include such feared men as General Abdul Rashid Dostum, a former Northern Alliance leader who is notorious for once disciplining an errant foot soldier by running him over with a tank.
Back in the 1990s, Dr Abdullah and General Dostum were with the Northern Alliance together against the Taliban. But there the similarities end. Unlike the general, a larger-than-life, vodka-swilling figure, who enjoyed challenging visiting reporters to wrestling matches, Dr Abdullah is a quietly-spoken, academic figure, fluent in both English and French.
He studied ophthalmology at Kabul University before joining the anti-Soviet resistance in the Panjshir Valley alongside Ahmad Shah Massoud, the legendary guerrilla commander who later led the Northern Alliance against the Taliban. Massoud was murdered by al-Qaeda suicide bombers posing as a camera crew days before the attacks on September 11, 2001, but remains a revered figure in Afghanistan because of his warrior pedigree.
As well as benefiting from his association with Massoud, Dr Abdullah has the advantage of straddling Afghan's main ethnic divide. While his mother was an ethnic Tajik, a tribe predominant in the north, his father was a Pashtun, the tribe predominant in the religiously conservative south, which also provides the bulk of support for the Taliban movement. Being of mixed parentage means he can appeal to a wide variety of voters – and, combined with his message of change, has led to him being inevitably dubbed "The Afghan Obama".
At first his campaign got off to a poor start, with Dr Abdullah looking tired and uncertain. But as he told the Sunday Telegraph, a month ago he suddenly began to believe in himself. It was during a visit to the western city of Herat when he arrived to find cheering supporters lining the 10 miles from the city's airport to its football stadium.
"When I went to Herat I was overwhelmed," he said. "Thousands of people, tens of thousands of people, they turned out to welcome me at the airport and between the airport and the stadium.
"Some of them ran and some of them walked and some of them took bikes, whatever they had. That's something that shows people are now hopeful and that they want to be support my campaign."
Now, by contrast, he clearly enjoys campaigning, looking relaxed and cheerful despite the constant presence of armed bodyguards at his side – an operational essential for any Afghan election candidate. His growing confidence has prompted diplomats to revise their assessments of what previously seemed like a shoo-in for Mr Karzai. The British Ambassador to Kabul, Mark Sedwill, described the election last week as "genuinely in the balance".
At his headquarters in Kabul 500 supporters canvas support, sort stacks of leaflets, and consume steaming plates of rice and lamb. The capital's dingy streets are plastered with posters, showing a bewildering array of turbaned candidates, and a few women, and the symbols they have chosen for identification by Afghanistan's many illiterate voters – pots, goats, horses, and the like.
His supporters fervently hope that if he is returned at the polls, Dr Abdullah can do what Mr Karzai said he would do before he was overwhelmingly elected in 2004 – bring peace, jobs and reconstruction.
Doing so could revitalise the moribund government which the West has been trying with limited success to both prop up and push into an effective battle against the Taliban. Mr Karzai is widely judged to have failed on this crucial front.
Dr Abullah has also promised to develop a prime ministerial system and devolve power to elected governors, a plan which could help to restrain some of the less savoury characters put into power by the current president.
Dr Abdullah's detractors say he is too close to the Northern Alliance which he served for years, and the powerful Tajiks of the north-east. There are even murmurings that despite his mixed parentage, the southern Pashtuns could start an ethnic civil war if he took power.
For this reason, among others, the West has been careful not to openly back any candidate in the election. But the strained relationship between foreign diplomats who spend billions in Afghanistan, and see much of it wasted, and Hamid Karzai, the president they have to put up with, has meant credible rival candidates are welcomed. Dr Abdullah would be perfectly acceptable to the West, although there would be concerns that he, like Mr Karzai, would find his good intentions far easier to pledge than deliver.
A total of 36 candidates plan to stand, although the only other high-profile contender is Dr Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, an academic and former World Bank technocrat who once served as finance minister. He is, however, famously cantankerous and, like many Afghan leaders, seems unable to do a power-sharing deal with anyone.
President Karzai is thought to be considering joining forces with Dr Ghani, offering to create for him a new job of chief executive, making him in effect prime minister. If past Afghan politics are anything to go by, though, horse-trading, backroom deals and betrayals will probably prevail until a clear winner emerges.
That, at least, is the best case scenario. Such is the fear of fraud, and such has been the discontent over the results of the last five years of democracy, that many of Dr Abdullah's supporters say they will go for Tehran-style mass street protests if the polls say Mr Karzai has won again. And if that happens, they have pointedly said that Afghans, unlike Iranians, nearly all have Kalashnikovs.
 
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